Initial assessment of business plans – past delivery models

 

We use data models to calculate water companies’ price controls – and certain information we need to set those controls.

The purpose of the past delivery modelling suite is to perform the reconciliations of the 2014 price review incentive mechanisms operating for companies during 2015-20.

We will apply the reconciliation adjustments to companies’ 2020-25 price controls. We use the revenue and Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) adjustments produced by the reconciliation models as inputs for the PR19 financial model in the revenue adjustments feeder model and the RCV adjustments feeder model.

For each company we publish:

  • a model for each reconciliation
  • a revenue adjustments feeder model
  • a RCV adjustments feeder model.

The past delivery models use companies’ data submission to us in July 2018 – except where the companies’ narratives for their September 2018 submissions describe changes to the proposed adjustments. In these cases the models use the September 2018 data submission. The models do not reflect other minor updates to data from the September 2018 submissions.

Reconciliation models

Company

Outcome delivery incentives

Land disposals

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism

Total Expenditure reconciliation

Water trading

Residential retail revenue
Affinity Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Affinity Water Land Disposals model – Affinity Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Affinity Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Affinity Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Affinity Water
Anglian Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Anglian Water Land Disposals model – Anglian Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Anglian Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Anglian Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Anglian Water
Bristol Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Bristol Water Land Disposals model – Bristol Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bristol Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Bristol Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Bristol Water
Bournemouth Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Bournemouth Water Land Disposals model – Bournemouth Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bournemouth Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Bournemouth Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Bournemouth Water
Hafren Dyfrdwy Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Hafren Dyfrdwy Land Disposals model – Hafren Dyfrdwy Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Hafren Dyfrdwy Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Hafren Dyfrdwy Residential Retail Revenue model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Northumbrian Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Northumbrian Water Land Disposals model – Northumbrian Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Northumbrian Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Northumbrian Water Water Trading model – Northumbrian Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Northumbrian Water
Portsmouth Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Portsmouth Water Land Disposals model – Portsmouth Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Portsmouth Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Portsmouth Water Water Trading model – Portsmouth Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Portsmouth Water
SES Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – SES Water Land Disposals model – SES Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – SES Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – SES  Water Residential Retail Revenue model – SES Water
South East Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – South East Water Land Disposals model – South East Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South East Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – South East Water Residential Retail Revenue model – South East Water
Southern Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Southern Water Land Disposals model – Southern Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Southern Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Southern Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Southern Water
South Staffs Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – South Staffs Water Land Disposals model – South Staffs Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South Staffs Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – South Staffs Water Residential Retail Revenue model – South Staffs Water
Severn Trent Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Severn Trent Water Land Disposals model – Severn Trent Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Severn Trent Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Severn Trent Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Severn Trent Water
South West Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – South West Water Land Disposals model – South West Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South West Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – South West Water Residential Retail Revenue model – South West Water
Thames Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Thames Water Land Disposals model – Thames Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Thames Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Thames Water

Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Thames Tideway Tunnel

 Water Trading model – Thames Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Thames Water
United Utilities Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – United Utilities Water Land Disposals model – United Utilities Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – United Utilities Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – United Utilities Water Residential Retail Revenue model – United Utilities Water
Dŵr Cymru Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Dŵr Cymru Land Disposals model – Dŵr Cymru Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Dŵr Cymru Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Dŵr Cymru Residential Retail Revenue model – Dŵr Cymru
Wessex Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Wessex Water Land Disposals model – Wessex Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Wessex Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Wessex Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Wessex Water
Yorkshire Water Outcome Delivery Incentives model – Yorkshire Water Land Disposals model – Yorkshire Water Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Yorkshire Water Total Expenditure reconciliation model – Yorkshire Water Residential Retail Revenue model – Yorkshire Water

Revenue adjustments feeder models, RCV adjustments feeder models and aggregation model

Company

Revenue adjustments

Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) adjustments

Aggregation model
Affinity Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water
Anglian Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water       RCV adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water   
Bristol Water Revenue adjustments  feeder model – Bristol Water RCV adjustments  feeder model – Bristol Water
Bournemouth Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water
Hafren Dyfrdwy Revenue adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy RCV adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Northumbrian Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water
Portsmouth Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water
SES Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – SES Water RCV adjustments feeder model – SES Water
South East Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – South East Water RCV adjustments feeder model – South East Water
Southern Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Southern Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
South Staffs Water Revenue adjustments model – South Staffs Water RCV adjustments model – South Staffs Water
Severn Trent Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water
South West Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – South West Water RCV adjustments feeder model – South West Water South West & Bournemouth aggregation model
Thames Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Thames Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Thames Water
United Utilities Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – United Utilities Water RCV adjustments feeder model – United Utilities Water
Dŵr Cymru Revenue adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru RCV adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru
Wessex Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water
Yorkshire Water Revenue adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water RCV adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water