The 2019 price review (PR19) final determinations included reconciliation adjustments to take account of company performance in 2015-20. Forecast data was used for the 2019-20 financial year (the blind year) as this had not yet finished, and companies reported actual 2019-20 performance alongside their Annual Performance Reports (APRs) in July 2020. We used this data to assess the difference between the 2019-20 performance assumed in the PR19 final determinations and actual 2019-20 performance; and our resulting PR19 blind year draft proposals were published in September 2020.
The PR19 blind year final decisions documents present our conclusions regarding the reconciliations and interventions we are making to reflect actual company performance in 2019-20; this includes an overview document summarising key industry issues and 17 company-specific documents.
We used data models to calculate the appropriate reconciliations and interventions for each company and these were based on the past delivery modelling suite developed (and published) as part of the PR19 final determinations. We updated these models to take account of actual company performance in 2019-20 as reported in their 2020 APRs and, for each company, we publish the following revised past delivery models used to develop the PR19 blind year final decisions.
- Totex reconciliation model
- Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model
- Residential (household) retail model
- Land sales model
- RCV adjustments feeder model
- Revenue adjustments feeder model
We also publish a water trading model for Northumbrian Water, Thames Water and Portsmouth Water, an aggregation model for South West Water and an enforcement model for Southern Water.
For the PR19 blind year final decisions, we have also used new models to calculate both the blind year adjustments and the impact on the price limits we set in December 2019, arising from the variation between forecast and actual performance in 2019-20. For each company we also publish:
- a PR19 BY ODI difference model
- an in-period adjustment model
- a blind year adjustments model
The blind year revenue adjustments will apply 2021-22 across the remaining years of 2020-25 price controls. The blind year Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) adjustments and retail revenue adjustments will apply from 2025.
Key documents
Adjusting for company actual performance in 2019-20: Blind Year adjustment, final decisions – overview (Corrigenda published February 2021)
Company-specific documents and models
Affinity Water
Totex reconciliation model – Affinity Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Affinity Water
Residential (household) retail model – Affinity Water
Land sales model – Affinity Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Affinity Water
In-period adjustment model – Affinity Water
Blind year adjustments model – Affinity Water (correction published February 2021)
Anglian Water
Totex reconciliation model – Anglian Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Anglian Water
Residential (household) retail model – Anglian Water
Land sales model – Anglian Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Anglian Water
In-period adjustment model – Anglian Water
Blind year adjustments model – Anglian Water (correction published February 2021)
Bristol Water
Totex reconciliation model – Bristol Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bristol Water
Residential (household) retail model – Bristol Water
Land sales model – Bristol Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bristol Water
In-period adjustment model – Bristol Water
Blind year adjustments model – Bristol Water (correction published February 2021)
Dŵr Cymru
Totex reconciliation model – Dŵr Cymru
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Dŵr Cymru
Residential (household) retail model – Dŵr Cymru
RCV adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Dŵr Cymru
In-period adjustment model – Dŵr Cymru
Blind year adjustments model – Dŵr Cymru (correction published February 2021)
Hafren Dyfrdwy
Totex reconciliation model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Residential (household) retail model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Land sales model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
RCV adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
In-period adjustment model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Blind year adjustments model – Hafren Dyfrdwy (correction published February 2021)
Northumbrian Water
Totex reconciliation model – Northumbrian Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Northumbrian Water
Residential (household) retail model – Northumbrian Water
Land sales model – Northumbrian Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Northumbrian Water
In-period adjustment model – Northumbrian Water
Blind year adjustments model – Northumbrian Water (correction published February 2021)
Water Trading Model – Northumbrian Water
Portsmouth Water
Totex reconciliation model – Portsmouth Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Portsmouth Water
Residential (household) retail model – Portsmouth Water
Land sales model – Portsmouth Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Portsmouth Water
In-period adjustment model – Portsmouth Water
Blind year adjustments model – Portsmouth Water (correction published February 2021)
Water Trading Model – Portsmouth Water
SES Water
Totex reconciliation model – SES Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – SES Water
Residential (household) retail model – SES Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – SES Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – SES Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – SES Water
In-period adjustment model – SES Water
Blind year adjustments model – SES Water (correction published February 2021)
Severn Trent Water
Totex reconciliation model – Severn Trent Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Severn Trent Water
Residential (household) retail model – Severn Trent Water
Land sales model – Severn Trent Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Severn Trent Water
In-period adjustment model – Severn Trent Water
Blind year adjustments model – Severn Trent Water (correction published February 2021)
South East Water
Totex reconciliation model – South East Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South East Water
Residential (household) retail model – South East Water
Land sales model – South East Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – South East Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South East Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South East Water
In-period adjustment model – South East Water
Blind year adjustments model – South East Water (correction published February 2021)
South Staffs Water
Totex reconciliation model – South Staffs Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South Staffs Water
Residential (household) retail model – South Staffs Water
Land sales model – South Staffs Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South Staffs Water
In-period adjustment model – South Staffs Water
Blind year adjustments model – South Staffs Water (correction published February 2021)
South West Water
South West Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment, final decisions – Overview (Corrigenda published February 2021)
Totex reconciliation model – South West Water
Totex reconciliation model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South West Water
Residential (household) retail model – South West Water
Residential (household) retail model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Land sales model – South West Water
Land sales model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
RCV adjustments feeder model – South West Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South West Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South West Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
In-period adjustment model – South West Water
Blind year adjustments model – South West Water (correction published February 2021)
Blind year adjustments model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited) (correction published February 2021)
Aggregation model – South West Water
Southern Water
Totex reconciliation model – Southern Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Southern Water
Residential (household) retail model – Southern Water
Land sales model – Southern Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Southern Water
In-period adjustment model – Southern Water
Blind year adjustments model – Southern Water (correction published February 2021)
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments pop up model – Southern Water
Enforcement adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
Thames Water
Totex reconciliation model – Thames Water
Totex reconciliation model – Thames Tideway
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Thames Water
Residential (household) retail model – Thames Water
Land sales model – Thames Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Thames Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Thames Water
In-period adjustment model – Thames Water
Blind year adjustments model – Thames Water (correction published February 2021)
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments pop up model – Thames Water
Water Trading Model – Thames Water
United Utilities
Totex reconciliation model – United Utilities
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – United Utilities
Residential (household) retail model – United Utilities
Land sales model – United Utilities
RCV adjustments feeder model – United Utilities
Revenue adjustments feeder model – United Utilities
PR19 BY ODI difference model – United Utilities
In-period adjustment model – United Utilities
Blind year adjustments model – United Utilities (correction published February 2021)
Wessex Water
Totex reconciliation model – Wessex Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Wessex Water
Residential (household) retail model – Wessex Water
Land sales model – Wessex Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Wessex Water
In-period adjustment model – Wessex Water
Blind year adjustments model – Wessex Water (correction published February 2021)
Yorkshire Water
Totex reconciliation model – Yorkshire Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Yorkshire Water
Residential (household) retail model – Yorkshire Water
Land sales model – Yorkshire Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Yorkshire Water
In-period adjustment model – Yorkshire Water
Blind year adjustments model – Yorkshire Water (correction published February 2021)