PR19 blind year reconciliation

We use data models to calculate water companies’ price controls – and certain information we need in order to set those controls.

To perform the reconciliations of the 2014 price review incentive mechanisms, operating for companies during 2015-20, we use a past delivery modelling suite.

Our PR19 final determination suite of models published in December 2019 included companies’ forecast performance for 2019-20. For the blind year reconciliation, we have updated relevant past delivery models to take account of companies’ actual performance in 2019-20 as reported in their annual performance reports in July 2020. For each company we publish the following updated past delivery models:

  • Totex reconciliation model
  • Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model
  • Residential (household) retail model
  • Land sales model
  • RCV adjustments feeder model
  • Revenue adjustments feeder model

We also publish a water trading model for Northumbrian Water, Thames Water and Portsmouth Water, an aggregation model for South West Water and an enforcement model for Southern Water.

For the blind year reconciliation, we have also used new models to calculate both the blind year adjustments and the impact on the price limits we set in December 2019, arising from the variation between forecast and actual performance in 2019-20. For each company we also publish:

  • a PR19 BY ODI difference model
  • an in-period adjustment model
  • a blind year adjustments model

The blind year revenue adjustments will apply 2021-22 across the remaining years of 2020-25 price controls. The blind year Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) adjustments and retail revenue adjustments will apply from 2025.

Key documents

Adjusting for company actual performance in 2019-20: Blind Year adjustment – overview

Company-specific documents and models

Affinity Water

Affinity Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Affinity Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Affinity Water

Residential (household) retail model – Affinity Water

Land sales model – Affinity Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Affinity Water

In-period adjustment model – Affinity Water

Blind year adjustments model – Affinity Water


Anglian Water

Anglian Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Anglian Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Anglian Water

Residential (household) retail model – Anglian Water

Land sales model – Anglian Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Anglian Water

In-period adjustment model – Anglian Water

Blind year adjustments model – Anglian Water


Bristol Water

Bristol Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Bristol Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bristol Water

Residential (household) retail model – Bristol Water

Land sales model – Bristol Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bristol Water

In-period adjustment model – Bristol Water

Blind year adjustments model – Bristol Water

Dŵr Cymru

Dŵr Cymru – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Dŵr Cymru

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Dŵr Cymru

Residential (household) retail model – Dŵr Cymru

Land sales model – Dŵr Cymru

RCV adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Dŵr Cymru

In-period adjustment model – Dŵr Cymru

Blind year adjustments model – Dŵr Cymru


Hafren Dyfrdwy

Hafren Dyfrdwy – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

Residential (household) retail model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

Land sales model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

RCV adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

In-period adjustment model – Hafren Dyfrdwy

Blind year adjustments model – Hafren Dyfrdwy


Northumbrian Water

Northumbrian Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Northumbrian Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Northumbrian Water

Residential (household) retail model – Northumbrian Water

Land sales model – Northumbrian Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Northumbrian Water

In-period adjustment model – Northumbrian Water

Blind year adjustments model – Northumbrian Water

Water Trading Model – Northumbrian Water


Portsmouth Water

Portsmouth Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Portsmouth Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Portsmouth Water

Residential (household) retail model – Portsmouth Water

Land sales model – Portsmouth Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Portsmouth Water

In-period adjustment model – Portsmouth Water

Blind year adjustments model – Portsmouth Water

Water Trading Model – Portsmouth Water


SES Water

SES Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – SES Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – SES Water

Residential (household) retail model – SES Water

Land sales model – SES Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – SES Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – SES Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – SES Water

In-period adjustment model – SES Water

Blind year adjustments model – SES Water


Severn Trent Water

Severn Trent Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Severn Trent Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Severn Trent Water

Residential (household) retail model – Severn Trent Water

Land sales model – Severn Trent Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Severn Trent Water

In-period adjustment model – Severn Trent Water

Blind year adjustments model – Severn Trent Water


South East Water

South East Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – South East Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South East Water

Residential (household) retail model – South East Water

Land sales model – South East Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – South East Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – South East Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – South East Water

In-period adjustment model – South East Water

Blind year adjustments model – South East Water


South Staffs Water

South Staffs Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – South Staffs Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South Staffs Water

Residential (household) retail model – South Staffs Water

Land sales model – South Staffs Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – South Staffs Water

In-period adjustment model – South Staffs Water

Blind year adjustments model – South Staffs Water


South West Water

South West Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – South West Water

Totex reconciliation model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South West Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

Residential (household) retail model – South West Water

Residential (household) retail model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

Land sales model – South West Water

Land sales model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

RCV adjustments feeder model – South West Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

Revenue adjustments feeder model – South West Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

PR19 BY ODI difference model – South West Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

In-period adjustment model – South West Water

Blind year adjustments model – South West Water

Blind year adjustments model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)

Aggregation model – South West Water


Southern Water

Southern Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Southern Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Southern Water

Residential (household) retail model – Southern Water

Land sales model – Southern Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Southern Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Southern Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Southern Water

In-period adjustment model – Southern Water

Blind year adjustments model – Southern Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Southern Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Southern Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Southern Water

Revenue adjustments pop up model – Southern Water

Enforcement adjustments feeder model – Southern Water


Thames Water

Thames Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Thames Water

Totex reconciliation model – Thames Tideway

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Thames Water

Residential (household) retail model – Thames Water

Land sales model – Thames Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Thames Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Thames Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Thames Water

In-period adjustment model – Thames Water

Blind year adjustments model – Thames Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Thames Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Thames Water

Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Thames Water

Revenue adjustments pop up model – Thames Water

Water Trading Model – Thames Water


United Utilities

United Utilities Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – United Utilities

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – United Utilities

Residential (household) retail model – United Utilities

Land sales model – United Utilities

RCV adjustments feeder model – United Utilities

Revenue adjustments feeder model – United Utilities

PR19 BY ODI difference model – United Utilities

In-period adjustment model – United Utilities

Blind year adjustments model – United Utilities


Wessex Water

Wessex Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Wessex Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Wessex Water

Residential (household) retail model – Wessex Water

Land sales model – Wessex Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Wessex Water

In-period adjustment model – Wessex Water

Blind year adjustments model – Wessex Water


Yorkshire Water

Yorkshire Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview

Totex reconciliation model – Yorkshire Water

Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Yorkshire Water

Residential (household) retail model – Yorkshire Water

Land sales model – Yorkshire Water

RCV adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water

Revenue adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water

PR19 BY ODI difference model – Yorkshire Water

In-period adjustment model – Yorkshire Water

Blind year adjustments model – Yorkshire Water