Our draft proposals for the PR19 blind year reconciliation are laid out below – our final decisions were published on 13 November 2020.
We use data models to calculate water companies’ price controls – and certain information we need in order to set those controls.
To perform the reconciliations of the 2014 price review incentive mechanisms, operating for companies during 2015-20, we use a past delivery modelling suite.
Our PR19 final determination suite of models published in December 2019 included companies’ forecast performance for 2019-20. For the blind year reconciliation, we have updated relevant past delivery models to take account of companies’ actual performance in 2019-20 as reported in their annual performance reports in July 2020. For each company we publish the following updated past delivery models:
- Totex reconciliation model
- Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model
- Residential (household) retail model
- Land sales model
- RCV adjustments feeder model
- Revenue adjustments feeder model
We also publish a water trading model for Northumbrian Water, Thames Water and Portsmouth Water, an aggregation model for South West Water and an enforcement model for Southern Water.
For the blind year reconciliation, we have also used new models to calculate both the blind year adjustments and the impact on the price limits we set in December 2019, arising from the variation between forecast and actual performance in 2019-20. For each company we also publish:
- a PR19 BY ODI difference model
- an in-period adjustment model
- a blind year adjustments model
The blind year revenue adjustments will apply 2021-22 across the remaining years of 2020-25 price controls. The blind year Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) adjustments and retail revenue adjustments will apply from 2025.
Draft proposals
Key documents
Adjusting for company actual performance in 2019-20: Blind Year adjustment – overview
Company-specific documents and models
Affinity Water
Affinity Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Affinity Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Affinity Water
Residential (household) retail model – Affinity Water
Land sales model – Affinity Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Affinity Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Affinity Water
In-period adjustment model – Affinity Water
Blind year adjustments model – Affinity Water
Anglian Water
Anglian Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Anglian Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Anglian Water
Residential (household) retail model – Anglian Water
Land sales model – Anglian Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Anglian Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Anglian Water
In-period adjustment model – Anglian Water
Blind year adjustments model – Anglian Water
Bristol Water
Bristol Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Bristol Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Bristol Water
Residential (household) retail model – Bristol Water
Land sales model – Bristol Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bristol Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bristol Water
In-period adjustment model – Bristol Water
Blind year adjustments model – Bristol Water
Dŵr Cymru
Dŵr Cymru – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Dŵr Cymru
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Dŵr Cymru
Residential (household) retail model – Dŵr Cymru
RCV adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Dŵr Cymru
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Dŵr Cymru
In-period adjustment model – Dŵr Cymru
Blind year adjustments model – Dŵr Cymru
Hafren Dyfrdwy
Hafren Dyfrdwy – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Residential (household) retail model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Land sales model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
RCV adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
In-period adjustment model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Blind year adjustments model – Hafren Dyfrdwy
Northumbrian Water
Northumbrian Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Northumbrian Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Northumbrian Water
Residential (household) retail model – Northumbrian Water
Land sales model – Northumbrian Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Northumbrian Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Northumbrian Water
In-period adjustment model – Northumbrian Water
Blind year adjustments model – Northumbrian Water
Water Trading Model – Northumbrian Water
Portsmouth Water
Portsmouth Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Portsmouth Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Portsmouth Water
Residential (household) retail model – Portsmouth Water
Land sales model – Portsmouth Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Portsmouth Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Portsmouth Water
In-period adjustment model – Portsmouth Water
Blind year adjustments model – Portsmouth Water
Water Trading Model – Portsmouth Water
SES Water
SES Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – SES Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – SES Water
Residential (household) retail model – SES Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – SES Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – SES Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – SES Water
In-period adjustment model – SES Water
Blind year adjustments model – SES Water
Severn Trent Water
Severn Trent Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Severn Trent Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Severn Trent Water
Residential (household) retail model – Severn Trent Water
Land sales model – Severn Trent Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Severn Trent Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Severn Trent Water
In-period adjustment model – Severn Trent Water
Blind year adjustments model – Severn Trent Water
South East Water
South East Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – South East Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South East Water
Residential (household) retail model – South East Water
Land sales model – South East Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – South East Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South East Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South East Water
In-period adjustment model – South East Water
Blind year adjustments model – South East Water
South Staffs Water
South Staffs Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – South Staffs Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South Staffs Water
Residential (household) retail model – South Staffs Water
Land sales model – South Staffs Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South Staffs Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South Staffs Water
In-period adjustment model – South Staffs Water
Blind year adjustments model – South Staffs Water
South West Water
South West Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – South West Water
Totex reconciliation model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – South West Water
Residential (household) retail model – South West Water
Residential (household) retail model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Land sales model – South West Water
Land sales model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
RCV adjustments feeder model – South West Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Revenue adjustments feeder model – South West Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
PR19 BY ODI difference model – South West Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
In-period adjustment model – South West Water
Blind year adjustments model – South West Water
Blind year adjustments model – Bournemouth Water (South West Water Limited)
Aggregation model – South West Water
Southern Water
Southern Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Southern Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Southern Water
Residential (household) retail model – Southern Water
Land sales model – Southern Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Southern Water
In-period adjustment model – Southern Water
Blind year adjustments model – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Southern Water
Revenue adjustments pop up model – Southern Water
Enforcement adjustments feeder model – Southern Water
Thames Water
Thames Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Thames Water
Totex reconciliation model – Thames Tideway
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Thames Water
Residential (household) retail model – Thames Water
Land sales model – Thames Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Thames Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Thames Water
In-period adjustment model – Thames Water
Blind year adjustments model – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (1) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (2) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments undertakings profile (3) – Thames Water
Revenue adjustments pop up model – Thames Water
Water Trading Model – Thames Water
United Utilities
Totex reconciliation model – United Utilities
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – United Utilities
Residential (household) retail model – United Utilities
Land sales model – United Utilities
RCV adjustments feeder model – United Utilities
Revenue adjustments feeder model – United Utilities
PR19 BY ODI difference model – United Utilities
In-period adjustment model – United Utilities
Blind year adjustments model – United Utilities
Wessex Water
Wessex Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Wessex Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Wessex Water
Residential (household) retail model – Wessex Water
Land sales model – Wessex Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Wessex Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Wessex Water
In-period adjustment model – Wessex Water
Blind year adjustments model – Wessex Water
Yorkshire Water
Yorkshire Water – Adjusting for actual performance in 2019-20: Blind year adjustment – Overview
Totex reconciliation model – Yorkshire Water
Wholesale Revenue Forecasting Incentive Mechanism model – Yorkshire Water
Residential (household) retail model – Yorkshire Water
Land sales model – Yorkshire Water
RCV adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water
Revenue adjustments feeder model – Yorkshire Water
PR19 BY ODI difference model – Yorkshire Water